Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
