Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Fuels Aston Villa's Improbable Title Charge

A mere 60 days prior that the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery admonished him over not reading a through-ball. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a symptom or the reason of the side's wider issues.

On Sunday, though, the sideline response proved to be far more favourable. When Rogers swept in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery tore off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their opening six fixtures, find themselves just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Serious Hopefuls?

That’s a particularly tough query to resolve. History, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, while the wins have stacked up.

Per statistical analysis, twice all season has the team posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team that have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear strangely fragile – however right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with the opposition and wait for their talisman to bail them out with two crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again against Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, bent right inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent Villa have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, will not continue to drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still return to peak condition.

• The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
• The winger might become the performer he was during his peak.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Savoring the Moment

Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial player for the national team.

This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the hero stood in front of the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.